BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWNadmin
This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings altered up their competitions somewhat and I like the new choice of competitions and prizes. The main GPP is currently a $10 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at that $30k prize. I’ll also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of drama into money games.
Money Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I am not loving this slate to get money games, and I was just going to pick the principal event stack for my money game play of this week. But, I will see the main event only scoring ~100 total points and once I am stacking I want a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I’ve changed my stance on the pile and I think Shane Young makes a fantastic cash game play. I don’t understand how large of a ceiling he has since I do believe this struggle goes all 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and even more confident in him not getting finished. I think he’s a high floor since this fight should move all 3 rounds, but I presume he is the better fighter anyplace and that I see him winning this battle with a mixture of striking and wrestling. I do think he’s 100-point upside into a decision, and that I also think he can finish this battle. But I feel like he’s a secure play for 80+ and that’s why he’s my cash game play of the week rather than my GPP play. GPP drama of the week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I think the only real way Kang loses this fight is by getting KO’d. He must be the much superior fighter around the mat, and I believe he can hang the toes too. I expect him to search for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara has no floor game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does have hefty power in his hands I believe Kang includes a floor of 0 things, but this is why he is my GPP play of the week and not my money game play of this week. In cash, I wish to lock in high flooring and that is not what we have here. I enjoy this for GPPs because if he loses $9.4k it won’t matter how many points he’s, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we might still come off with a gain if he lost a determination at that price and still scored 30-40 points, we’d just need to hit our other areas. We do not want 6 wins in cash, but we do for GPP. So, we can take the opportunity on a 0 because he’s 100+ upside because he will be the fighter attempting to grapple and that I could see him becoming multiple takedowns in addition to a submission. I believe he has a 1st or 2nd round entry and I don’t expect for him to stand too long with Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this area and I like him as a pivot from a big name who could be more popular.
Underdog play of the week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I’m actually choosing Whittaker to win this particular fight, but I also don’t love many/any underdogs with this card. I expect this struggle to remain standing for as long as it lasts. I personally find this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous decision. If that is true, then I believe Gastelum gets the maximum floor of the underdogs since he will have 5 rounds to function with and he will land a reasonable number of shots. In addition, I think if Whittaker wins a 25-minute conclusion he probably only scores 85-95 DK points. At his 8.9k salary, that may not put him on the $30k lineup. In case Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or conclusion, he’ll almost surely be on that $30k lineup at his $7.3additional salary. That is why he is my underdog drama of this week.
Fade of the week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I must stay on brand with this one and pick Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I’ve chosen him my fade every time he has fought so I will roll with it again. The design Alvey brings to the table is simply not beneficial for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey can possibly score tremendously is by obtaining a win. He fails to strike a high enough speed to score highly at a decision and he won’t be heading for any takedowns. Even if he receives a decision win here he can score 50-60 DK points and that might not be enough to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I want at least 10x out of a fighter once I roster them and together with his $7.9k price label, so I need at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that is why he’s my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 54-34 to get +177.13un (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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